From January to August, China's steel exports increased by 26.5% to 71 million 866 thousand tons over the same period, while the gross steel output in the same period dropped by 2% to 543 million 20 thousand tons in the same period, and the domestic steel market was shrinking. China's stainless steel industry, which is highly regarded as expected, has been in constant flux from the beginning of the year. The growth rate of crude steel output in the first half of 2015 has dropped from two digits to 6.6%. Some agencies predict that in 2015 China's stainless steel crude steel output increased by only 2.5% to 22 million 150 thousand tons.

Global commodity trading giant Glencore sta Limited by Share Ltd share prices plunged sharply, means that the global iron ore and other commodities into the fall cycle, from then on, 150 general carbon billet price below 1500 yuan / ton probability is increasing.

Intensification of contradiction between supply and demand of alloy

From January to August, the national ferroalloy output was 24 million 58 thousand and 600 tons, 1.55% lower than that in the same period in 2014, 1 million 651 thousand tons of net import of ferroalloy (import 2 million 387 thousand tons, 736 thousand tons), 840 thousand tons of net import in 2014 (1 million 714 thousand tons of imports, 874 thousand tons of export), and 25 million 710 thousand tons of domestic ferroalloy, compared with 201. The same period increased by 8.5% over the same period of 4 years, which contrasts with the decrease of crude steel output by 2% in the first 8 months of this year.

In China, the export of ferrosilicon was 1 million 539 thousand tons in 2007, only 313 thousand tons in 2013 and only 188 thousand tons in the first 8 months in the first 8 months of 2015. From January 2015 to August, the export volume of ferroalloys in China decreased by 18.75% compared with the same period in 2014. It should be noted that the influx of foreign iron alloys. From January to August, China has imported 1 million 826 thousand tons of ferrochrome, up 27.9% compared to the same period in 2014, up 69.1% compared to the same period in 2013. The cumulative import of nickel iron in our country is 433 thousand and 600 tons, up 151.66% compared with the same period 2014, up 375.44% from the same period in 2013.

The price of the alloy has fallen rapidly

Since the beginning of this year, all the ferroalloy prices have continued to fall, most of which have broken down the bottom line, and many ferroalloy enterprises have to stick to the loss of production in order to keep the market share. The price of high carbon ferrochrome issued by Baosteel in October was 6000 yuan per ton, down 6.7% from 6400 yuan in October 2014, 14.2% down from 6850 yuan in October 2013, 18.3% to 7100 yuan in October 2012, and 37.5% down from 8250 yuan in October 2011. The price of silicon manganese in Hebei iron and steel group fell to 4900 yuan per ton in October, down 97% compared to 9650 yuan / ton in October 2011, and the price of ferrosilicon in October was about 5000 yuan / ton, down about 72% compared to 8600 yuan / ton in November 2011. As the London Metal Exchange (LME) nickel price fell from $58000 / ton to 10000 US dollars / ton, Taiyuan Iron and Steel Company finalized the high nickel iron price in September was only 740 yuan / nickel.

The market competition is much worse

Since 2013, China's ferroalloy industry has begun the process of shuffling, the large-scale equipment, the scientific and scientific transformation and upgrading of competitive means in 2015 also lost the competitive advantage of the price slump in 2015. In 2013, the incremental mining enthusiasm of chrome ore was basically terminated. In 2014, the advantage of high water price in the South was completely ended. In 2015, the ambition of silicon manganese production in northern China was deeply hit. In recent years, the output of chromium and ferrochrome has increased rapidly in foreign countries. While its producers complain that the Chinese market price is low and the Chinese market share is scramble for the market share, the smelting opportunities of China's 12500kVA furnace have obviously been suppressed, and the production costs of China's 33000kVA smelting furnace are relatively high and low.

China's nickel iron industry withdrew from the inland to the coast in 2012, and after a complete ban on the export of nickel mine in 2014, the advantages of the rotary kiln - ore - heat furnace (RKEF) completely hit the Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region's dominant electricity price confidence. With the popularization of "integration" technology in stainless steel smelting, the embarrassment of single nickel iron enterprises is increasingly obvious. After the price of nickel plate fell below the average cost of 15000 US dollars per ton, the advantage of pure nickel became increasingly prominent. When the nickel price falls below the 10000 US dollar / ton mark, it is difficult to display the comparative advantage of smelting nickel iron in Philippines low-grade nickel ore. After the imported nickel iron produced 75154 tons of monthly imports in April, the trend of gradual decline in imports indicates that the production of nickel and iron in foreign countries has also entered a difficult situation of loss, which adds to the unknown concern of investing in overseas nickel and iron projects, which will drag down the construction and production progress of overseas factories.

Industry shuffle intensifies

People in the industry generally believe that even if macroeconomic changes in the fourth quarter can not lead to a miraculous growth in steel demand, it is particularly impossible to reverse the demand for large carbon steel.

The price of ferroalloy introduced before the National Day is not very good news for most ferroalloy enterprises. Because of the difficult economic transformation and limited investment, the number of ferroalloy enterprises that can maintain production will be reduced again. Due to the influx of foreign ferroalloys in China, it is difficult to export the domestic ferroalloy. It is estimated that after the Spring Festival of 2016, it will be a watershed for the ferroalloy enterprises to continue to maintain their production and operation. The era of scrap smelting in China's steel industry is approaching. The reshuffle of China's ferroalloy industry will be a major event for a long time to come.